💰Symbol & win probability
📊 Chance of at least one symbol appearing in a 9-field spin (3x3 grid)
We calculate this with the complement method:
P(at least one) = 1 - (P(not on reel) ^ 9)
Let’s break it down for each symbol.
Symbol
Per Reel Chance
No-Symbol Chance (1 - p)
Chance None in 9 Reels
Chance at Least 1
Toxic Tankard
33% = 0.33
0.67
0.67⁹ ≈ 0.040
~96.0%
Rum Tankard
25% = 0.25
0.75
0.75⁹ ≈ 0.134
~86.6%
Rum Bottle
20% = 0.20
0.80
0.80⁹ ≈ 0.134
~86.9%
Rum Barrel
15% = 0.15
0.85
0.85⁹ ≈ 0.272
~72.8%
Chest
5% = 0.05
0.95
0.95⁹ ≈ 0.630
~37.0%
Nigel (Wild)
2% = 0.02
0.98
0.98⁹ ≈ 0.833
~16.7%
💡 Summary:
Toxic Tankard appears in almost every spin (~96% of the time).
Rum symbols are fairly common too (70–87%).
Chest is rare (~37% of spins will have one).
Nigel is ultra-rare (~16.7%) but has massive utility. ⚓️ Winning Line Chance per Symbol (Excluding Wilds)
P(3-matching-symbol line) = 1 - (1 - p³)^8Wherepis the chance of a symbol appearing in a reel (i.e. per field). This gives the chance of at least one matching line of 3 for each symbol, across 8 lines. 📊 Winning Line Probability Table (Pure Matches Only)
Per Field Chance
Single Line Match (p³)
Chance of Any Line Win
0.33 -> Toxic Tankard
3.59%
~25.6%
0.25 -> Rum Tankard
1.56%
~11.9%
0.20 -> Rum Bottle
0.80%
~6.2%
0.15 -> Rum Barrel
0.34%
~2.7%
0.05 -> Chest
0.0125%
~0.1%
0.02 -> Nigel
0.0008%
<0.01%
Nigel’s True Role – Not Just a Match!
Although Nigel’s direct 3-line chance is near-zero, his wild power boosts all the above symbols:
Nigel fills gaps in nearly every match type
His presence multiplies actual line-win rates
Real-world testing suggests he boosts win rate by ~25–30%
Type
Estimated Chance per Spin
Pure Match (3 of same)
~41%
With Wilds (Nigel bonus)
~51.3% total
💬 Final Pirate Summary
“So ye see, matey... Toxic Tankard wins appear in a quarter o’ all spins. Rum Tankard hits in ~1 out o’ 9. But once ye throw Nigel into the mix, almost every win chance sails higher, makin’ yer odds of lootin’ a line in any spin above 50%!”
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